the yahngorithm
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Murray State
MVFC · FCS
@
Oklahoma State
Big 12
Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 6:00 PM CT · ESPN+ · Boone Pickens Stadium
Market spreadOKST -55.5
Market total69.5
Model spreadOKST -53.5
Edge-2

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel OKST -53.5
market OKST -55.5  ·  edge -2  ·  MUR -46.2 vs OKST +4.8 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel OKST -52.7
market OKST -55.5  ·  edge -2.8 (away)  ·  MUR -46.2 vs OKST +3.8 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 1 book. Positive edge = model likes Oklahoma State. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
MUR-46.2—0-46.2
OKST+4.8-0.5-0.5+3.8

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

MUR expected
7
0.6 pts/poss
OKST expected
44.9
3.7 pts/poss
Model total
51.9
market 69.5 · 24.1 poss, average pace
Edge
-17.6
model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

letdownOklahoma Statebeat Oregonhurts OKST
Won an emotional game last week (rivalry or within 3 SP+ pts) and this week's opponent is 10+ SP+ pts weaker. Emotional hangover — fade this team / take the points.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

MUROKST
ATS overall0-11-1
ATS at home–1-0
ATS on the road0-10-1
ATS as favorite–0-1
ATS as underdog0-11-0
ATS after a win––
ATS after a loss–1-0
W–L at home–1-0
W–L on the road0-10-1
Over / Under0O–1U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (OKST)Total
fanduel-55.5 -11069.5 -110

Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from OKST's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

MUR1%
OKST99%
Implied lineOKST -31.4
Volume126k
Open interest121k
Traded 24h18k

Kalshi's market prices OKST to win 99% — about OKST -31.4 vs the book's OKST -55.5. 24.1-pt gap — the market rates MUR higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.