the yahngorithm

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Eastern Washington

Big Sky · FCS

Washington

Big Ten

Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 6:15 PM CT · BTN · Husky Stadium

Market spreadWASH -42.5

Market total56.5

Model spreadWASH -44.9

Edge+2.4

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel WASH -44.9

market WASH -42.5 · edge +2.4 · EWU -33.2 vs WASH +9.2 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel WASH -44.7

market WASH -42.5 · edge +2.2 · EWU -33.2 vs WASH +8.6 + 2.9 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 1 book. Positive edge = model likes Washington. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

EWU-33.2—0-33.2

WASH+9.2-0.5-0.1+8.6

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.9 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

EWU expected

0.6 pts/poss

WASH expected

4.1 pts/poss

Model total

market 56.5 · 22.7 poss, average pace

Edge

-2.5

under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

EWUWASH

ATS overall–0-2

ATS at home–0-2

ATS on the road––

ATS as favorite–0-2

ATS as underdog––

ATS after a win–0-1

ATS after a loss––

W–L at home–2-0

W–L on the road––

Over / Under–0O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (WASH)	Total
fanduel	-42.5 -110	56.5 -110

Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from WASH's side.

Line movement

Sep 15, 8:01 AM · openWASH -42.5o/u 56.51 book
Sep 14, 11:00 PM · dailyWASH -42.5o/u 56.51 book
Sep 14, 8:00 PM · dailyWASH -42.5o/u 56.51 book
Sep 14, 5:00 PM · dailyWASH -42.5o/u 56.51 book
Sep 14, 2:00 PM · dailyWASH -44.5o/u 56.51 book

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

EWU1%

WASH99%

Implied lineWASH -31.4

Volume97k

Open interest95k

Traded 24h30k

Kalshi's market prices WASH to win 99% — about WASH -31.4 vs the book's WASH -42.5. 11.1-pt gap — the market rates EWU higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 16, 10:00 AMWASH 99%95k vol
Sep 16, 10:30 AMWASH 99%97k vol
Sep 16, 11:00 AMWASH 99%97k vol
Sep 16, 11:30 AMWASH 99%97k vol
Sep 16, 12:00 PMWASH 99%97k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 16, 6:00 AM73°F (feels 71°)wind 6.4 g6precip 0%
Sep 15, 4:00 PM72°F (feels 69°)wind 7.3 g8precip 0%
Sep 15, 6:00 AM73°F (feels 70°)wind 7.2 g7precip 0%

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.