the yahngorithm

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North Dakota

MVFC · FCS

Nebraska

Big Ten

Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 6:15 PM CT · BTN · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)

Market spreadNEB -24.5

Market total50.5

Model spreadNEB -23

Edge-1.5

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel NEB -23

market NEB -24.5 · edge -1.5 · UND -9.4 vs NEB +11.1 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel NEB -23.7

market NEB -24.5 · edge -0.8 · UND -9.4 vs NEB +11.6 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 2 books. Positive edge = model likes Nebraska. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

UND-9.4—0-9.4

NEB+11.1+0.50+11.6

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

UND expected

18.1

1.6 pts/poss

NEB expected

41.1

3.7 pts/poss

Model total

59.1

market 50.5 · 22.4 poss, average pace

Edge

+8.6

model leans over

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

UNDNEB

ATS overall–2-0

ATS at home–2-0

ATS on the road––

ATS as favorite–2-0

ATS as underdog––

ATS after a win–1-0

ATS after a loss––

W–L at home–2-0

W–L on the road––

Over / Under–2O–0U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (NEB)	Total
betrivers	-24.5 -112	50.5 -113
fanduel	-24.5 -110	50.5 -110

Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from NEB's side.

Line movement

Sep 15, 8:01 AM · openNEB -24.5o/u 50.52 books
Sep 14, 11:00 PM · dailyNEB -24.5o/u 50.51 book
Sep 14, 8:00 PM · dailyNEB -24.5o/u 50.51 book
Sep 14, 5:00 PM · dailyNEB -24.5o/u 50.51 book
Sep 14, 2:00 PM · dailyNEB -24.5o/u 49.51 book

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

UND7%

NEB93%

Implied lineNEB -20

Volume25k

Open interest21k

Traded 24h7.0k

Kalshi's market prices NEB to win 93% — about NEB -20 vs the book's NEB -24.5. 4.5-pt gap — the market rates UND higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 16, 10:00 AMNEB 94%23k vol
Sep 16, 10:30 AMNEB 93%24k vol
Sep 16, 11:00 AMNEB 93%24k vol
Sep 16, 11:30 AMNEB 93%24k vol
Sep 16, 12:00 PMNEB 93%25k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 16, 6:00 AM79°F (feels 81°)wind 8.3 g9precip 7%
Sep 15, 4:00 PM74°F (feels 76°)wind 12.8 g22precip 19%
Sep 15, 6:00 AM87°F (feels 91°)wind 7.6 g9precip 13%

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.