the yahngorithm
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11BYU
Big 12
@
Colorado State
Pac-12
Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 6:30 PM CT · CBS · Canvas Stadium
Market spreadBYU -18
Market total52.5
Model spreadBYU -21
Edge-3

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel BYU -21
market BYU -18  ·  edge -3 (away)  ·  BYU +14.9 vs CSU -8.6 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel BYU -20
market BYU -18  ·  edge -2  ·  BYU +15.2 vs CSU -8 + 3.2 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Colorado State. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
BYU+14.9+0.5-0.2+15.2
CSU-8.6+0.5+0.1-8

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 3.2 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

BYU expected
34.5
3 pts/poss
CSU expected
13.5
1.2 pts/poss
Model total
48.1
market 52.5 · 22.8 poss, average pace
Edge
-4.4
model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

lookaheadBYUthen TCUhurts BYU
Decent team favored by 13+ this week, with a rivalry or tough opponent (within ~6) next week. Classic trap — fade this team / take the points.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

BYUCSU
ATS overall2-02-0
ATS at home2-02-0
ATS on the road––
ATS as favorite2-02-0
ATS as underdog––
ATS after a win1-01-0
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home2-02-0
W–L on the road––
Over / Under1O–1U2O–0U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (CSU)Total
betmgm+18 -11252.5 -108
betonlineag+18 -11552.5 -110
betrivers+17.5 -11352.5 -110
betus+18 -11552.5 -110
bovada+17.5 -11552 -110
draftkings+17.5 -10552.5 -105
fanduel+17.5 -10452.5 -110
lowvig+18 -11152.5 -108
mybookieag+18 -11052 -110

Best CSU number +18 · best BYU number -17.5. Best over 52 · best under 52.5. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from CSU's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

BYU89%
CSU11%▲ 1
Implied lineBYU -16.6
Volume49k
Open interest47k
Traded 24h33k

Kalshi's market prices CSU to win 11% — about BYU -16.6 vs the book's BYU -18. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.