the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Virginia. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 0 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (UVA) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -10 -108 | 54.5 -105 |
| betonlineag | -10 -115 | 53.5 -108 |
| betrivers | -10 -112 | 54 -109 |
| betus | -10 -115 | 53 -110 |
| bovada | -10.5 -110 | 53.5 -105 |
| draftkings | -10 -115 | 52.5 -112 |
| fanduel | -9.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 |
| lowvig | -10 -111 | 53.5 -106 |
| mybookieag | -10.5 -110 | 53 -110 |
Best UVA number -9.5 · best WVU number +10.5. Best over 52.5 · best under 54.5. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from UVA's side.
Line movement
- Sep 15, 8:01 AM · openUVA -10 (-10.5–-9.5)o/u 53.5 (52.5–54.5)9 books
- Sep 14, 11:00 PM · dailyUVA -10 (-10.5–-9.5)o/u 53.5 (52.5–54.5)9 books
- Sep 14, 8:00 PM · dailyUVA -10 (-10.5–-9.5)o/u 53.5 (52.5–54.5)9 books
- Sep 14, 5:00 PM · dailyUVA -10 (-10.5–-9.5)o/u 53.5 (53–54.5)9 books
- Sep 14, 2:00 PM · dailyUVA -10 (-10–-9.5)o/u 53.5 (53–54.5)9 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices UVA to win 77% — about UVA -10.2 vs the book's UVA -10. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 16, 10:00 AMUVA 78%11k vol
- Sep 16, 10:30 AMUVA 78%11k vol
- Sep 16, 11:00 AMUVA 78%12k vol
- Sep 16, 11:30 AMUVA 77%12k vol
- Sep 16, 12:00 PMUVA 77%12k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 16, 6:00 AM76°F (feels 82°)wind 4.5 g10precip 46%
- Sep 15, 4:00 PM79°F (feels 85°)wind 4.4 g11precip 22%
- Sep 15, 6:00 AM87°F (feels 88°)wind 5 g10precip 16%
Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.