the yahngorithm
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New Mexico
Mountain West
@
24Oklahoma
SEC
Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 6:30 PM CT · ESPN2 · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
Market spreadOU -22.5
Market total46.5
Model spreadOU -16.7
Edge-5.8

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel OU -16.7
market OU -22.5  ·  edge -5.8 (away)  ·  UNM +3.1 vs OU +17.3 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel OU -16.2
market OU -22.5  ·  edge -6.3 (away)  ·  UNM +3.4 vs OU +16.7 + 3 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Oklahoma. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
UNM+3.1+0.5-0.2+3.4
OU+17.3-0.5-0.1+16.7

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 3 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

UNM expected
16.3
1.4 pts/poss
OU expected
33
2.8 pts/poss
Model total
49.3
market 46.5 · 23.9 poss, average pace
Edge
+2.8
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

lookaheadOklahomathen Georgiahurts OU
Decent team favored by 13+ this week, with a rivalry or tough opponent (within ~6) next week. Classic trap — fade this team / take the points.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

UNMOU
ATS overall2-01-1
ATS at home2-01-0
ATS on the road–0-1
ATS as favorite2-01-1
ATS as underdog––
ATS after a win1-00-1
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home2-01-0
W–L on the road–0-1
Over / Under1O–1U0O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (OU)Total
betmgm-22.5 -11046.5 -112
betonlineag-21.5 -11546.5 -110
betrivers-23 -10947 -112
betus-22.5 -11046.5 -110
bovada-23.5 -10547.5 -105
draftkings-22.5 -11246.5 -115
fanduel-22.5 -11046.5 -110
lowvig-21.5 -11146.5 -108
mybookieag-23 -11047 -110

Best OU number -21.5 · best UNM number +23.5. Best over 46.5 · best under 47.5. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from OU's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

UNM7%
OU93%
Implied lineOU -20
Volume52k
Open interest48k
Traded 24h7.4k

Kalshi's market prices OU to win 93% — about OU -20 vs the book's OU -22.5. 2.5-pt gap — the market rates UNM higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.