the yahngorithm
← board
7LSU
SEC
@
8Ole Miss
SEC
Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 6:30 PM CT · ABC · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Market spreadLSU -3
Market total58.5
Model spreadLSU -6.4
Edge-3.4

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel LSU -6.4
market LSU -3  ·  edge -3.4 (away)  ·  LSU +22.2 vs MISS +13.3 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel LSU -6.4
market LSU -3  ·  edge -3.4 (away)  ·  LSU +22.3 vs MISS +13 + 2.9 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 7 books. Positive edge = model likes Ole Miss. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
LSU+22.2+0.2-0.1+22.3
MISS+13.3-0.5+0.2+13

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.9 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

LSU expected
29.4
2.5 pts/poss
MISS expected
23
1.9 pts/poss
Model total
52.5
market 58.5 · 23.9 poss, average pace
Edge
-6
model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

revengeLSUlost by 5helps LSU
Lost the last meeting (within 2 seasons) in a rivalry or by ≤10 points, and this year's game projects within 14. The "one that got away" angle — modest, partly priced in.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

LSUMISS
ATS overall1-10-2
ATS at home1-10-2
ATS on the road––
ATS as favorite1-10-2
ATS as underdog––
ATS after a win0-10-1
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home2-02-0
W–L on the road––
Over / Under2O–0U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (MISS)Total
betmgm+3 -11058.5 -118
betonlineag+3 -11059 -110
betrivers+2.5 -10758.5 -113
betus+3 -11059 -110
bovada+3 -11558.5 -110
draftkings+3 -11058.5 -118
fanduel+2.5 -10258.5 -108

Best MISS number +3 · best LSU number -2.5. Best over 58.5 · best under 59. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from MISS's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

LSU58%
MISS42%
Implied lineLSU -2.9
Volume615k
Open interest480k
Traded 24h114k

Kalshi's market prices MISS to win 42% — about LSU -2.9 vs the book's LSU -3. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

PICKLSU -3spread · sp_plus · logged at -4.5 edge
model -7.5logged -3close –CLV –
revenge

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.