the yahngorithm
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Colorado
Big 12
@
Northwestern
Big Ten
Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 6:30 PM CT · FOX · Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium
Market spreadNU -3.5
Market total49
Model spreadNU -6.6
Edge+3.1

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel NU -6.6
market NU -3.5  ·  edge +3.1 (home)  ·  COLO +1.8 vs NU +5.9 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel NU -7.2
market NU -3.5  ·  edge +3.7 (home)  ·  COLO +2.2 vs NU +6.7 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Northwestern. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
COLO+1.8+0.40+2.2
NU+5.9+0.5+0.3+6.7

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

COLO expected
20
1.8 pts/poss
NU expected
26.6
2.4 pts/poss
Model total
46.6
market 49 · 22.3 poss, average pace
Edge
-2.4
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

off byeNorthwestern14d resthelps NU
A skipped week on the schedule (a true bye). Extra prep time — usually a small positive, especially for the better-coached team and for underdogs.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

COLONU
ATS overall1-11-0
ATS at home0-11-0
ATS on the road1-0–
ATS as favorite0-11-0
ATS as underdog1-0–
ATS after a win0-1–
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home1-01-0
W–L on the road1-0–
Over / Under1O–1U1O–0U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (NU)Total
betmgm-3.5 -11048.5 -112
betonlineag-4 -10549 -110
betrivers-3.5 -11449.5 -112
betus-3.5 -11549 -110
bovada-3.5 -11549 -110
draftkings-3.5 -11548.5 -115
fanduel-3.5 -11048.5 -115
lowvig-4 -10149 -108
mybookieag-3.5 -11049 -110

Best NU number -3.5 · best COLO number +4. Best over 48.5 · best under 49.5. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from NU's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

COLO38%
NU62%
Implied lineNU -4.3
Volume25k
Open interest23k
Traded 24h7.8k

Kalshi's market prices NU to win 62% — about NU -4.3 vs the book's NU -3.5. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.