the yahngorithm

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Virginia Tech

ACC

Maryland

Big Ten

Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 6:30 PM CT · FS1 · SECU Stadium

Market spreadVT -3

Market total53.5

Model spreadVT -1.5

Edge+1.5

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel VT -1.5

market VT -3 · edge +1.5 · VT +10.8 vs MD +6.8 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel VT -1.3

market VT -3 · edge +1.7 · VT +11.3 vs MD +7.3 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Maryland. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

VT+10.8+0.50+11.3

MD+6.8+0.50+7.3

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

VT expected

26.9

2.3 pts/poss

MD expected

25.4

2.1 pts/poss

Model total

52.2

market 53.5 · 23.7 poss, average pace

Edge

-1.3

under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

VTMD

ATS overall2-02-0

ATS at home2-01-0

ATS on the road–1-0

ATS as favorite2-02-0

ATS as underdog––

ATS after a win1-01-0

ATS after a loss––

W–L at home2-01-0

W–L on the road–1-0

Over / Under2O–0U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (MD)	Total
betmgm	+3 -110	53.5 -110
betonlineag	+3 -115	53.5 -110
betrivers	+3 -112	53.5 -110
betus	+3 -115	53.5 -110
bovada	+3 -115	54 -110
draftkings	+3 -115	53.5 -115
fanduel	+3.5 -124	53.5 -112
lowvig	+3 -111	53.5 -108
mybookieag	+3 -110	54 -110

Best MD number +3.5 · best VT number -3. Best over 53.5 · best under 54. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from MD's side.

Line movement

Sep 15, 8:01 AM · openVT -3 (3–3.5)o/u 53.5 (53.5–54)9 books
Sep 14, 11:00 PM · dailyVT -3 (3–3.5)o/u 53.5 (53.5–54.5)9 books
Sep 14, 8:00 PM · dailyVT -3 (3–3.5)o/u 53.5 (53.5–54.5)9 books
Sep 14, 5:00 PM · dailyVT -3 (3–3.5)o/u 53.5 (53.5–54.5)9 books
Sep 14, 2:00 PM · dailyVT -3 (2.5–3)o/u 53.5 (53.5–54.5)9 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

VT58%

MD42%

Implied lineVT -2.7

Volume17k

Open interest16k

Traded 24h2.6k

Kalshi's market prices MD to win 42% — about VT -2.7 vs the book's VT -3. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 16, 10:00 AMMD 42%17k vol
Sep 16, 10:30 AMMD 42%17k vol
Sep 16, 11:00 AMMD 42%17k vol
Sep 16, 11:30 AMMD 42%17k vol
Sep 16, 12:00 PMMD 42%17k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 16, 6:00 AM75°Fwind 8.3 g16precip 1%
Sep 15, 4:00 PM78°Fwind 6.2 g12precip 4%
Sep 15, 6:00 AM78°F (feels 80°)wind 6.8 g13precip 4%

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.