the yahngorithm
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Kennesaw State
Conference USA
@
15Tennessee
SEC
Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 6:45 PM CT · SEC Network · Neyland Stadium
Market spreadTENN -35.5
Market total59.5
Model spreadTENN -33.4
Edge-2.1

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel TENN -33.4
market TENN -35.5  ·  edge -2.1  ·  KENN -12.6 vs TENN +18.3 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel TENN -33.5
market TENN -35.5  ·  edge -2  ·  KENN -12.3 vs TENN +18.2 + 3 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 8 books. Positive edge = model likes Tennessee. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
KENN-12.6+0.5-0.2-12.3
TENN+18.3+0.2-0.2+18.2

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 3 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

KENN expected
12.6
1.1 pts/poss
TENN expected
46
3.8 pts/poss
Model total
58.6
market 59.5 · 24 poss, average pace
Edge
-0.9
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

lookaheadTennesseethen Texashurts TENN
Decent team favored by 13+ this week, with a rivalry or tough opponent (within ~6) next week. Classic trap — fade this team / take the points.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

KENNTENN
ATS overall1-11-1
ATS at home1-10-1
ATS on the road–1-0
ATS as favorite1-11-1
ATS as underdog––
ATS after a win0-11-0
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home1-11-0
W–L on the road–1-0
Over / Under0O–2U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (TENN)Total
betmgm-35.5 -10859.5 -105
betonlineag-35.5 -11059 -110
betrivers-35.5 -11059.5 -110
betus-35.5 -11059 -110
bovada-35.5 -11060 -105
draftkings-35.5 -11259.5 -110
fanduel-35.5 -10860.5 -105
lowvig-35.5 -10659 -108

Best over 59 · best under 60.5. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from TENN's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

KENN2%
TENN98%
Implied lineTENN -27.8
Volume61k
Open interest58k
Traded 24h3.5k

Kalshi's market prices TENN to win 98% — about TENN -27.8 vs the book's TENN -35.5. 7.7-pt gap — the market rates KENN higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.