the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes TCU. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (TCU) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -20 -108 | 55.5 -110 |
| betonlineag | -20.5 -110 | 56 -110 |
| betrivers | -20.5 -114 | 55.5 -114 |
| betus | -20.5 -110 | 56 -110 |
| bovada | -20 -110 | 55.5 -115 |
| draftkings | -20.5 -105 | 55.5 -110 |
| fanduel | -20.5 -105 | 55.5 -110 |
| lowvig | -20.5 -106 | 56 -108 |
| mybookieag | -20.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 |
Best TCU number -20 · best ARST number +20.5. Best over 55.5 · best under 56. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from TCU's side.
Line movement
- Sep 15, 8:01 AM · openTCU -20.5 (-20.5–-20)o/u 55.5 (55.5–56)9 books
- Sep 14, 11:00 PM · dailyTCU -20.5 (-20.5–-20)o/u 55.5 (55.5–56)9 books
- Sep 14, 8:00 PM · dailyTCU -20.5 (-20.5–-20)o/u 56 (55.5–56.5)9 books
- Sep 14, 5:00 PM · dailyTCU -20.5 (-20.5–-20)o/u 56 (55.5–56)9 books
- Sep 14, 2:00 PM · dailyTCU -20.5 (-20.5–-20)o/u 56.5 (55.5–56.5)9 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices TCU to win 91% — about TCU -18.2 vs the book's TCU -20.5. 2.3-pt gap — the market rates ARST higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 16, 10:00 AMTCU 91%1.3k vol
- Sep 16, 10:30 AMTCU 91%1.3k vol
- Sep 16, 11:00 AMTCU 91%1.3k vol
- Sep 16, 11:30 AMTCU 91%1.3k vol
- Sep 16, 12:00 PMTCU 91%1.3k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 16, 6:00 AM97°F (feels 93°)wind 10.4 g11precip 0%
- Sep 15, 4:00 PM96°F (feels 91°)wind 10.2 g13precip 0%
- Sep 15, 6:00 AM97°F (feels 92°)wind 9.8 g11precip 2%
Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.