the yahngorithm
← board
UAB
American Athletic
@
Louisiana
Sun Belt
Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM CT · ESPN+ · Cajun Field
Market spreadUL -7.5
Market total56.5
Model spreadUL -13.2
Edge+5.7

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel UL -13.2
market UL -7.5  ·  edge +5.7 (home)  ·  UAB -19.2 vs UL -8.5 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel UL -13.3
market UL -7.5  ·  edge +5.8 (home)  ·  UAB -18.2 vs UL -7.6 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Louisiana. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
UAB-19.2+0.5+0.5-18.2
UL-8.5+0.5+0.4-7.6

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

UAB expected
19.8
1.9 pts/poss
UL expected
33
3.2 pts/poss
Model total
52.9
market 56.5 · 20.8 poss, slow, grind-it-out
Edge
-3.6
model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

UABUL
ATS overall1-12-0
ATS at home0-11-0
ATS on the road1-01-0
ATS as favorite0-11-0
ATS as underdog1-01-0
ATS after a win–1-0
ATS after a loss0-1–
W–L at home1-01-0
W–L on the road0-10-1
Over / Under1O–1U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (UL)Total
betmgm-7.5 -10556.5 -110
betonlineag-7.5 -11256.5 -110
betrivers-8.5 -11256.5 -113
betus-7.5 -11056.5 -110
bovada-7.5 -10556.5 -110
draftkings-7.5 -11056.5 -112
fanduel-7.5 -10556.5 -114
lowvig-7.5 -10856.5 -108
mybookieag-7.5 -11057 -110

Best UL number -7.5 · best UAB number +8.5. Best over 56.5 · best under 57. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from UL's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

UAB27%
UL73%
Implied lineUL -8.3
Volume3.5k
Open interest3.4k
Traded 24h2.7k

Kalshi's market prices UL to win 73% — about UL -8.3 vs the book's UL -7.5. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

PICKUnder 56.5total · sp_plus · logged at -3.6 edge
model 52.9logged 56.5close –CLV –
slow_pace

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.