the yahngorithm

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East Texas A&M

Southland · FCS

Tulsa

American Athletic

Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM CT · ESPN+ · Chapman Stadium

Market spreadTLSA -41.5

Market total57.5

Model spreadTLSA -40.5

Edge-1

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel TLSA -40.5

market TLSA -41.5 · edge -1 · ETAM -43.9 vs TLSA -5.9 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel TLSA -41

market TLSA -41.5 · edge -0.5 · ETAM -44 vs TLSA -5.7 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 1 book. Positive edge = model likes Tulsa. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

ETAM-43.9—-0.1-44

TLSA-5.9+0.20-5.7

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

ETAM expected

7.2

0.6 pts/poss

TLSA expected

47.7

4 pts/poss

Model total

54.8

market 57.5 · 23.8 poss, average pace

Edge

-2.7

under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

ETAMTLSA

ATS overall–1-1

ATS at home–1-0

ATS on the road–0-1

ATS as favorite–0-1

ATS as underdog–1-0

ATS after a win–0-1

ATS after a loss––

W–L at home–1-0

W–L on the road–1-0

Over / Under–0O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (TLSA)	Total
fanduel	-41.5 -114	57.5 -115

Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from TLSA's side.

Line movement

Sep 15, 8:01 AM · openTLSA -41.5o/u 57.51 book
Sep 14, 11:00 PM · dailyTLSA -41.5o/u 57.51 book
Sep 14, 8:00 PM · dailyTLSA -41.5o/u 57.51 book
Sep 14, 5:00 PM · dailyTLSA -40.5o/u 57.51 book
Sep 14, 2:00 PM · dailyTLSA -42.5o/u 57.51 book

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

ETAM1%

TLSA99%

Implied lineTLSA -31.4

Volume35k

Open interest34k

Traded 24h1.4k

Kalshi's market prices TLSA to win 99% — about TLSA -31.4 vs the book's TLSA -41.5. 10.1-pt gap — the market rates ETAM higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 16, 10:00 AMTLSA 99%35k vol
Sep 16, 10:30 AMTLSA 99%35k vol
Sep 16, 11:00 AMTLSA 99%35k vol
Sep 16, 11:30 AMTLSA 99%35k vol
Sep 16, 12:00 PMTLSA 99%35k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 16, 6:00 AM96°F (feels 94°)wind 10.3 g19precip 2%
Sep 15, 4:00 PM96°F (feels 93°)wind 10 g20precip 4%
Sep 15, 6:00 AM97°F (feels 93°)wind 11.3 g20precip 12%

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.