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UTSA

American Athletic

1Texas

SEC

Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM CT · SECN+ · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium

Market spreadTEX -30

Market total58

Model spreadTEX -25.4

Edge-4.6

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel TEX -25.4

market TEX -30 · edge -4.6 (away) · UTSA +0.2 vs TEX +23.1 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel TEX -24.8

market TEX -30 · edge -5.2 (away) · UTSA +0.8 vs TEX +22.8 + 2.9 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Texas. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

UTSA+0.2+0.5+0.1+0.8

TEX+23.1-0.5+0.2+22.8

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.9 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

UTSA expected

15.7

1.4 pts/poss

TEX expected

41.1

3.5 pts/poss

Model total

56.7

market 58 · 23.2 poss, average pace

Edge

-1.3

under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

lookaheadTexasthen Tennesseehurts TEX

Decent team favored by 13+ this week, with a rivalry or tough opponent (within ~6) next week. Classic trap — fade this team / take the points.

letdownTexasbeat Ohio Statehurts TEX

Won an emotional game last week (rivalry or within 3 SP+ pts) and this week's opponent is 10+ SP+ pts weaker. Emotional hangover — fade this team / take the points.

bad spotTexaslookahead + letdownhurts TEX

Two or more situational negatives stacked on this team (e.g. a long trip on a short week, or a letdown spot after a long trip). Backtests ~57% ATS on the fade — a decision aid, not a lock. Take the points against this team.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

UTSATEX

ATS overall2-01-1

ATS at home1-01-1

ATS on the road1-0–

ATS as favorite1-01-1

ATS as underdog1-0–

ATS after a win1-00-1

ATS after a loss––

W–L at home1-02-0

W–L on the road1-0–

Over / Under1O–1U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (TEX)	Total
betmgm	-30 -110	58.5 -105
betonlineag	-30 -110	58 -115
betrivers	-30.5 -113	58 -108
betus	-30 -110	58 -111
bovada	-30 -110	58 -110
draftkings	-30.5 -108	58.5 -105
fanduel	-30.5 -105	58.5 -105
lowvig	-30 -106	58 -114
mybookieag	-30 -110	58 -110

Best TEX number -30 · best UTSA number +30.5. Best over 58 · best under 58.5. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from TEX's side.

Line movement

Sep 15, 8:01 AM · openTEX -30 (-30.5–-30)o/u 58 (58–58.5)9 books
Sep 14, 11:00 PM · dailyTEX -30 (-30.5–-30)o/u 58 (58–58.5)9 books
Sep 14, 8:00 PM · dailyTEX -30 (-30.5–-30)o/u 58 (58–58.5)9 books
Sep 14, 5:00 PM · dailyTEX -30 (-30.5–-30)o/u 58 (58–58.5)9 books
Sep 14, 2:00 PM · dailyTEX -30 (-30.5–-30)o/u 58 (57.5–58.5)9 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

UTSA3%

TEX97%

Implied lineTEX -25.5

Volume289k

Open interest267k

Traded 24h88k

Kalshi's market prices TEX to win 97% — about TEX -25.5 vs the book's TEX -30. 4.5-pt gap — the market rates UTSA higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 16, 10:00 AMTEX 97%287k vol
Sep 16, 10:30 AMTEX 97%287k vol
Sep 16, 11:00 AMTEX 97%288k vol
Sep 16, 11:30 AMTEX 97%288k vol
Sep 16, 12:00 PMTEX 97%289k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 16, 6:00 AM97°F (feels 95°)wind 10 g12precip 1%
Sep 15, 4:00 PM97°F (feels 93°)wind 8.4 g11precip 3%
Sep 15, 6:00 AM95°F (feels 94°)wind 9.1 g10precip 0%

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.