the yahngorithm
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James Madison
Sun Belt
@
San Diego State
Pac-12
Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 9:00 PM CT · CW · Snapdragon Stadium
Market spreadSDSU -2.5
Market total46.5
Model spreadJMU -2
Edge-4.5

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel JMU -2
market SDSU -2.5  ·  edge -4.5 (away)  ·  JMU +2.1 vs SDSU -2.4 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel JMU -2
market SDSU -2.5  ·  edge -4.5 (away)  ·  JMU +2.1 vs SDSU -2.6 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes San Diego State. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
JMU+2.1+0.5-0.5+2.1
SDSU-2.4-0.5+0.3-2.6

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

JMU expected
26.5
2.3 pts/poss
SDSU expected
24.5
2.1 pts/poss
Model total
50.9
market 46.5 · 23.4 poss, average pace
Edge
+4.4
model leans over

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

travelJames Madison2168 mi, -3hhurts JMU
Home stadium is 1,200+ miles from the venue, or the body-clock timezone shift is 2+ hours. A documented small drag on the traveling team.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

JMUSDSU
ATS overall2-00-2
ATS at home2-00-1
ATS on the road–0-1
ATS as favorite2-00-1
ATS as underdog–0-1
ATS after a win1-00-1
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home2-01-0
W–L on the road–0-1
Over / Under1O–1U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (SDSU)Total
betmgm-2.5 -10846.5 -110
betonlineag-2 -11046.5 -110
betrivers-2.5 -11546.5 -113
betus-2 -11046.5 -110
bovada-2.5 -11546.5 -110
draftkings-2.5 -11246.5 -110
fanduel-2.5 -10846.5 -110
lowvig-2 -10646.5 -108
mybookieag-2.5 -11046.5 -110

Best SDSU number -2 · best JMU number +2.5. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from SDSU's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

JMU46%
SDSU54%
Implied lineSDSU -1.3
Volume7.4k
Open interest7.2k
Traded 24h1.5k

Kalshi's market prices SDSU to win 54% — about SDSU -1.3 vs the book's SDSU -2.5. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.