the yahngorithm

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South Dakota

MVFC · FCS

Boise State

Pac-12

Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 9:00 PM CT · CBSSN · Albertsons Stadium

Market spreadBOIS -24.5

Market total54.5

Model spreadBOIS -18.8

Edge-5.7

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel BOIS -18.8

market BOIS -24.5 · edge -5.7 (away) · SDAK -11.3 vs BOIS +5 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel BOIS -18.4

market BOIS -24.5 · edge -6.1 (away) · SDAK -11.3 vs BOIS +4.3 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 1 book. Positive edge = model likes Boise State. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

SDAK-11.3—0-11.3

BOIS+5-0.5-0.1+4.3

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

SDAK expected

20.6

1.7 pts/poss

BOIS expected

39.4

3.3 pts/poss

Model total

market 54.5 · 23.7 poss, average pace

Edge

+5.5

model leans over

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

SDAKBOIS

ATS overall–2-0

ATS at home–1-0

ATS on the road–1-0

ATS as favorite–1-0

ATS as underdog–1-0

ATS after a win––

ATS after a loss–1-0

W–L at home–1-0

W–L on the road–0-1

Over / Under–2O–0U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (BOIS)	Total
fanduel	-24.5 -105	54.5 -110

Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from BOIS's side.

Line movement

Sep 15, 8:01 AM · openBOIS -24.5o/u 54.51 book
Sep 14, 11:00 PM · dailyBOIS -24.5o/u 54.51 book
Sep 14, 8:00 PM · dailyBOIS -24.5o/u 54.51 book
Sep 14, 5:00 PM · dailyBOIS -24.5o/u 54.51 book
Sep 14, 2:00 PM · dailyBOIS -22.5o/u 56.51 book

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

SDAK6%

BOIS94%

Implied lineBOIS -21.1

Volume6.6k

Open interest6.3k

Traded 24h2.1k

Kalshi's market prices BOIS to win 94% — about BOIS -21.1 vs the book's BOIS -24.5. 3.4-pt gap — the market rates SDAK higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 16, 10:00 AMBOIS 94%6.6k vol
Sep 16, 10:30 AMBOIS 94%6.6k vol
Sep 16, 11:00 AMBOIS 94%6.6k vol
Sep 16, 11:30 AMBOIS 94%6.6k vol
Sep 16, 12:00 PMBOIS 94%6.6k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 16, 6:00 AM73°F (feels 67°)wind 6.7 g13precip 0%
Sep 15, 6:00 AM75°F (feels 70°)wind 5.5 g7precip 1%
Sep 14, 4:01 PM75°F (feels 69°)wind 6.1 g9precip 1%

Showing the 3 most recent of 4 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.