the yahngorithm
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Northern Illinois
Mountain West
@
Arizona
Big 12
Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 9:30 PM CT · TNT · Arizona Stadium
Market spreadARIZ -34.5
Market total49.5
Model spreadARIZ -29.7
Edge-4.8

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel ARIZ -29.7
market ARIZ -34.5  ·  edge -4.8 (away)  ·  NIU -18.8 vs ARIZ +8.4 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel ARIZ -29.7
market ARIZ -34.5  ·  edge -4.8 (away)  ·  NIU -19.1 vs ARIZ +7.9 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 8 books. Positive edge = model likes Arizona. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
NIU-18.8-0.4+0.2-19.1
ARIZ+8.4-0.5+0.1+7.9

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

NIU expected
10.3
0.9 pts/poss
ARIZ expected
40
3.4 pts/poss
Model total
50.2
market 49.5 · 23.6 poss, average pace
Edge
+0.7
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

travelNorthern Illinois1388 mi, -2hhurts NIU
Home stadium is 1,200+ miles from the venue, or the body-clock timezone shift is 2+ hours. A documented small drag on the traveling team.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

NIUARIZ
ATS overall0-20-2
ATS at home0-10-1
ATS on the road0-10-1
ATS as favorite–0-1
ATS as underdog0-20-1
ATS after a win–0-1
ATS after a loss0-1–
W–L at home0-11-0
W–L on the road0-10-1
Over / Under1O–1U0O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (ARIZ)Total
betmgm-34.5 -10849.5 -110
betonlineag-34 -11549.5 -105
betrivers-34.5 -11250.5 -109
betus-34 -11549.5 -105
bovada-34.5 -10550 -105
draftkings-34.5 -10849.5 -112
fanduel-34.5 -10549.5 -115
lowvig-34 -11149.5 -103

Best ARIZ number -34 · best NIU number +34.5. Best over 49.5 · best under 50.5. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from ARIZ's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

NIU2%
ARIZ98%
Implied lineARIZ -27.8
Volume17k
Open interest16k
Traded 24h520

Kalshi's market prices ARIZ to win 98% — about ARIZ -27.8 vs the book's ARIZ -34.5. 6.7-pt gap — the market rates NIU higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.