the yahngorithm
← board
North Dakota State
Mountain West
@
Sacramento State
Mid-American
Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 9:30 PM CT · ESPN · Hornet Stadium
Market spreadNDSU -27.5
Market total52
Model spreadNDSU -23.4
Edge+4.1

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel NDSU -23.4
market NDSU -27.5  ·  edge +4.1 (home)  ·  NDSU +2.3 vs SAC -23.6 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel NDSU -22.2
market NDSU -27.5  ·  edge +5.3 (home)  ·  NDSU +2.3 vs SAC -22.6 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Sacramento State. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
NDSU+2.3+0.5-0.5+2.3
SAC-23.6+0.5+0.5-22.6

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

NDSU expected
37
3.2 pts/poss
SAC expected
13.6
1.2 pts/poss
Model total
50.6
market 52 · 23 poss, average pace
Edge
-1.4
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

travelNorth Dakota State1369 mi, -2hhurts NDSU
Home stadium is 1,200+ miles from the venue, or the body-clock timezone shift is 2+ hours. A documented small drag on the traveling team.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

NDSUSAC
ATS overall2-1 67%1-2 33%
ATS at home1-11-0
ATS on the road1-00-2
ATS as favorite2-1 67%1-0
ATS as underdog–0-2
ATS after a win1-10-1
ATS after a loss–1-0
W–L at home2-01-0
W–L on the road1-00-2
Over / Under1O–2U1O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (SAC)Total
betmgm+27.5 -10851.5 -118
betonlineag+27.5 -11052 -105
betrivers+28 -11052 -109
betus+27.5 -11052 -105
bovada+27.5 -11052 -105
draftkings+27.5 -10852.5 -102
fanduel+28.5 -12051.5 -115
lowvig+27.5 -10652 -103
mybookieag+28 -11051.5 -110

Best SAC number +28.5 · best NDSU number -27.5. Best over 51.5 · best under 52.5. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from SAC's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

NDSU95%
SAC5%
Implied lineNDSU -22.3
Volume3.4k
Open interest3.4k
Traded 24h398

Kalshi's market prices SAC to win 5% — about NDSU -22.3 vs the book's NDSU -27.5. 5.2-pt gap — the market rates SAC higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.