the yahngorithm

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Montana

Big Sky · FCS

Oregon State

Pac-12

Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 10:00 PM CT · USA Net · Reser Stadium

Market spreadORST -16.5

Market total53.5

Model spreadORST -6.3

Edge-10.2

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel ORST -6.3

market ORST -16.5 · edge -10.2 (away) · MONT -10.3 vs ORST -6.5 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel ORST -6.2

market ORST -16.5 · edge -10.3 (away) · MONT -10.3 vs ORST -6.8 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 1 book. Positive edge = model likes Oregon State. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

MONT-10.3—0-10.3

ORST-6.5-0.4+0.1-6.8

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

MONT expected

24.6

2 pts/poss

ORST expected

30.9

2.5 pts/poss

Model total

55.5

market 53.5 · 24.4 poss, average pace

Edge

under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

MONTORST

ATS overall–2-0

ATS at home–1-0

ATS on the road–1-0

ATS as favorite––

ATS as underdog–2-0

ATS after a win––

ATS after a loss–1-0

W–L at home–0-1

W–L on the road–0-1

Over / Under–2O–0U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (ORST)	Total
fanduel	-16.5 -110	53.5 -110

Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from ORST's side.

Line movement

Sep 15, 8:01 AM · openORST -16.5o/u 53.51 book
Sep 14, 11:00 PM · dailyORST -16.5o/u 53.51 book
Sep 14, 8:00 PM · dailyORST -16.5o/u 53.51 book
Sep 14, 5:00 PM · dailyORST -15.5o/u 53.51 book
Sep 14, 2:00 PM · dailyORST -14.5o/u 53.51 book

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

MONT14%

ORST86%

Implied lineORST -14.8

Volume14k

Open interest13k

Traded 24h1.6k

Kalshi's market prices ORST to win 86% — about ORST -14.8 vs the book's ORST -16.5. 1.7-pt gap — the market rates MONT higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 16, 10:00 AMORST 86%14k vol
Sep 16, 10:30 AMORST 86%14k vol
Sep 16, 11:00 AMORST 86%14k vol
Sep 16, 11:30 AMORST 86%14k vol
Sep 16, 12:00 PMORST 86%14k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 16, 6:00 AM64°F (feels 62°)wind 4 g4precip 0%
Sep 15, 4:00 PM65°F (feels 63°)wind 3.8 g4precip 0%
Sep 15, 6:00 AM65°F (feels 62°)wind 4.1 g4precip 0%

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.