the yahngorithm

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Fresno State

Pac-12

San José State

Mountain West

Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 10:00 PM CT · FS1 · CEFCU Stadium

Market spreadFRES -6.5

Market total50.5

Model spreadFRES -9.2

Edge-2.7

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel FRES -9.2

market FRES -6.5 · edge -2.7 (away) · FRES -2.7 vs SJSU -14.4 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel FRES -8

market FRES -6.5 · edge -1.5 · FRES -3.3 vs SJSU -14 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes San José State. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

FRES-2.7-0.5-0.1-3.3

SJSU-14.4+0.5-0.1-14

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

FRES expected

29.4

2.5 pts/poss

SJSU expected

20.2

1.7 pts/poss

Model total

49.5

market 50.5 · 23.9 poss, average pace

Edge

-1

under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

FRESSJSU

ATS overall1-12-1 67%

ATS at home1-00-1

ATS on the road0-12-0

ATS as favorite1-00-1

ATS as underdog0-12-0

ATS after a win–0-1

ATS after a loss1-01-0

W–L at home1-01-0

W–L on the road0-11-1

Over / Under1O–1U1O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (SJSU)	Total
betmgm	+6.5 -105	50.5 -108
betonlineag	+6.5 -105	50.5 -105
betrivers	+7 -114	50.5 -110
betus	+6.5 -105	50.5 -105
bovada	+6.5 -105	50.5 -110
draftkings	+6.5 -102	50.5 -108
fanduel	+6.5 -105	50.5 -110
lowvig	+6.5 -101	50.5 -103
mybookieag	+6.5 -105	50.5 -110

Best SJSU number +7 · best FRES number -6.5. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from SJSU's side.

Line movement

Sep 15, 8:01 AM · openFRES -6.5 (6.5–7)o/u 50.59 books
Sep 14, 11:00 PM · dailyFRES -6.5 (6.5–7)o/u 50.59 books
Sep 14, 8:00 PM · dailyFRES -6.5 (6.5–7)o/u 50.59 books
Sep 14, 5:00 PM · dailyFRES -6.5 (6.5–7.5)o/u 50.5 (49.5–51)9 books
Sep 14, 2:00 PM · dailyFRES -6.5o/u 50.5 (49.5–51)9 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

No Kalshi market matched to this game (it may not be listed, or the teams didn't resolve). Marquee games have the deepest markets.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 16, 6:00 AM70°F (feels 68°)wind 6.8 g3precip 0%
Sep 15, 4:00 PM69°F (feels 67°)wind 7.4 g5precip 0%
Sep 15, 6:00 AM69°F (feels 66°)wind 7.3 g7precip 0%

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.