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Purdue
Big Ten
@
UCLA
Big Ten
Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 10:00 PM CT · BTN · Rose Bowl
Market spreadUCLA -14.5
Market total53
Model spreadUCLA -12.8
Edge-1.7

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel UCLA -12.8
market UCLA -14.5  ·  edge -1.7  ·  PUR -3.1 vs UCLA +7.2 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel UCLA -12.6
market UCLA -14.5  ·  edge -1.9  ·  PUR -2.7 vs UCLA +7.3 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes UCLA. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
PUR-3.1+0.1+0.3-2.7
UCLA+7.2-0.2+0.3+7.3

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

PUR expected
18.3
1.7 pts/poss
UCLA expected
31.1
2.9 pts/poss
Model total
49.4
market 53 · 21.7 poss, average pace
Edge
-3.6
model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

travelPurdue1761 mi, -3hhurts PUR
Home stadium is 1,200+ miles from the venue, or the body-clock timezone shift is 2+ hours. A documented small drag on the traveling team.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

PURUCLA
ATS overall1-12-0
ATS at home1-11-0
ATS on the road–1-0
ATS as favorite0-12-0
ATS as underdog1-0–
ATS after a win1-01-0
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home1-11-0
W–L on the road–1-0
Over / Under2O–0U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (UCLA)Total
betmgm-14.5 -10852.5 -110
betonlineag-15.5 -10553 -105
betrivers-14.5 -11253 -112
betus-15.5 -10553 -105
bovada-14.5 -10553 -110
draftkings-14.5 -11052.5 -112
fanduel-14.5 -11052.5 -110
lowvig-15.5 -10153 -103
mybookieag-14.5 -11052.5 -110

Best UCLA number -14.5 · best PUR number +15.5. Best over 52.5 · best under 53. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from UCLA's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

PUR15%
UCLA85%
Implied lineUCLA -14.1
Volume9.7k
Open interest6.7k
Traded 24h3.2k

Kalshi's market prices UCLA to win 85% — about UCLA -14.1 vs the book's UCLA -14.5. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.