the yahngorithm
Western Kentucky
Conference USA
@
New Mexico State
Conference USA
Week 5 · 2026 · Thu, Oct 1, 7:00 PM CT · Aggie Memorial Stadium
Market spread
Market total
Model spread
Edge

Spread models

No model prediction for this game — usually means one side isn't FBS or ratings weren't available that week.

Totals model

No totals projection for this game.

Situational flags

short weekNew Mexico State5.2d resthurts NMSU
Fewer than 6 days since this team's previous game. Less practice and recovery — a small negative, more so if they also traveled.
short weekWestern Kentucky5d resthurts WKU
Fewer than 6 days since this team's previous game. Less practice and recovery — a small negative, more so if they also traveled.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

WKUNMSU
ATS overall0-22-1 67%
ATS at home1-0
ATS on the road0-21-1
ATS as favorite0-11-0
ATS as underdog0-11-1
ATS after a win0-1
ATS after a loss0-11-0
W–L at home1-0
W–L on the road0-20-2
Over / Under2O–0U1O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

No sportsbook lines captured for this game yet.

Line movement

No sportsbook lines captured for this game yet.

Prediction market · Kalshi

No Kalshi market matched to this game (it may not be listed, or the teams didn't resolve). Marquee games have the deepest markets.

Weather

No forecast yet — pulled once the game is inside the ~16-day forecast horizon.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.