the yahngorithm
North Texas
American Athletic
@
Tulsa
American Athletic
Week 5 · 2026 · Thu, Oct 1, 8:00 PM CT · Chapman Stadium
Market spread
Market total
Model spread
Edge

Spread models

No model prediction for this game — usually means one side isn't FBS or ratings weren't available that week.

Totals model

No totals projection for this game.

Situational flags

short weekTulsa5d resthurts TLSA
Fewer than 6 days since this team's previous game. Less practice and recovery — a small negative, more so if they also traveled.
short weekNorth Texas5.1d resthurts UNT
Fewer than 6 days since this team's previous game. Less practice and recovery — a small negative, more so if they also traveled.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

UNTTLSA
ATS overall2-01-1
ATS at home1-01-0
ATS on the road1-00-1
ATS as favorite0-1
ATS as underdog2-01-0
ATS after a win0-1
ATS after a loss1-0
W–L at home1-01-0
W–L on the road0-11-0
Over / Under1O–1U0O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

No sportsbook lines captured for this game yet.

Line movement

No sportsbook lines captured for this game yet.

Prediction market · Kalshi

No Kalshi market matched to this game (it may not be listed, or the teams didn't resolve). Marquee games have the deepest markets.

Weather

No forecast yet — pulled once the game is inside the ~16-day forecast horizon.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.