the yahngorithm
Toledo
Mid-American
@
Ball State
Mid-American
Week 5 · 2026 · Fri, Oct 2, 11:00 PM CT · Scheumann Stadium
Market spread
Market total
Model spread
Edge

Spread models

No model prediction for this game — usually means one side isn't FBS or ratings weren't available that week.

Totals model

No totals projection for this game.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

TOLBALL
ATS overall1-0-11-1
ATS at home1-01-0
ATS on the road0-0-10-1
ATS as favorite1-01-0
ATS as underdog0-0-10-1
ATS after a win
ATS after a loss1-01-0
W–L at home1-01-0
W–L on the road0-10-1
Over / Under2O–0U2O–0U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

No sportsbook lines captured for this game yet.

Line movement

No sportsbook lines captured for this game yet.

Prediction market · Kalshi

No Kalshi market matched to this game (it may not be listed, or the teams didn't resolve). Marquee games have the deepest markets.

Weather

No forecast yet — pulled once the game is inside the ~16-day forecast horizon.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.