the yahngorithm
3Notre Dame
FBS Independents
@
North Carolina
ACC
Week 5 · 2026 · Fri, Oct 2, 11:00 PM CT · Kenan Stadium
Market spread
Market total
Model spread
Edge

Spread models

No model prediction for this game — usually means one side isn't FBS or ratings weren't available that week.

Totals model

No totals projection for this game.

Situational flags

off byeNorth Carolina13.5d resthelps UNC
A skipped week on the schedule (a true bye). Extra prep time — usually a small positive, especially for the better-coached team and for underdogs.
lookaheadNotre Damethen Stanfordhurts ND
Decent team favored by 13+ this week, with a rivalry or tough opponent (within ~6) next week. Classic trap — fade this team / take the points.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

NDUNC
ATS overall2-01-0
ATS at home2-0
ATS on the road1-0
ATS as favorite2-0
ATS as underdog1-0
ATS after a win1-0
ATS after a loss
W–L at home2-01-0
W–L on the road1-0
Over / Under1O–1U0O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

No sportsbook lines captured for this game yet.

Line movement

No sportsbook lines captured for this game yet.

Prediction market · Kalshi

No Kalshi market matched to this game (it may not be listed, or the teams didn't resolve). Marquee games have the deepest markets.

Weather

No forecast yet — pulled once the game is inside the ~16-day forecast horizon.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.