the yahngorithm
San José State
Mountain West
@
Hawai'i
Mountain West
Week 5 · 2026 · Sat, Oct 3, 10:59 PM CT · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Market spread
Market total
Model spread
Edge

Spread models

No model prediction for this game — usually means one side isn't FBS or ratings weren't available that week.

Totals model

No totals projection for this game.

Situational flags

revengeHawai'ilost by 7helps HAW
Lost the last meeting (within 2 seasons) in a rivalry or by ≤10 points, and this year's game projects within 14. The "one that got away" angle — modest, partly priced in.
off byeSan José State14d resthelps SJSU
A skipped week on the schedule (a true bye). Extra prep time — usually a small positive, especially for the better-coached team and for underdogs.
travelSan José State2412 mi, -3hhurts SJSU
Home stadium is 1,200+ miles from the venue, or the body-clock timezone shift is 2+ hours. A documented small drag on the traveling team.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

SJSUHAW
ATS overall2-1 67%1-2 33%
ATS at home0-11-1
ATS on the road2-00-1
ATS as favorite0-11-0
ATS as underdog2-00-2
ATS after a win0-1
ATS after a loss1-01-1
W–L at home1-01-1
W–L on the road1-10-1
Over / Under1O–2U1O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

No sportsbook lines captured for this game yet.

Line movement

No sportsbook lines captured for this game yet.

Prediction market · Kalshi

No Kalshi market matched to this game (it may not be listed, or the teams didn't resolve). Marquee games have the deepest markets.

Weather

No forecast yet — pulled once the game is inside the ~16-day forecast horizon.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.