the yahngorithm
12USC
Big Ten
@
14Penn State
Big Ten
Week 6 · 2026 · Fri, Oct 9, 11:00 PM CT · Beaver Stadium
Market spread
Market total
Model spread
Edge

Spread models

No model prediction for this game — usually means one side isn't FBS or ratings weren't available that week.

Totals model

No totals projection for this game.

Situational flags

travelUSC2247 mi, 3hhurts USC
Home stadium is 1,200+ miles from the venue, or the body-clock timezone shift is 2+ hours. A documented small drag on the traveling team.
revengeUSClost by 3helps USC
Lost the last meeting (within 2 seasons) in a rivalry or by ≤10 points, and this year's game projects within 14. The "one that got away" angle — modest, partly priced in.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

USCPSU
ATS overall1-2 33%1-1
ATS at home1-2 33%1-0
ATS on the road0-1
ATS as favorite1-2 33%1-1
ATS as underdog
ATS after a win1-10-1
ATS after a loss
W–L at home3-0 100%1-0
W–L on the road1-0
Over / Under2O–1U0O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

No sportsbook lines captured for this game yet.

Line movement

No sportsbook lines captured for this game yet.

Prediction market · Kalshi

No Kalshi market matched to this game (it may not be listed, or the teams didn't resolve). Marquee games have the deepest markets.

Weather

No forecast yet — pulled once the game is inside the ~16-day forecast horizon.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.