the yahngorithm
UCF
Big 12
@
Oklahoma State
Big 12
Week 6 · 2026 · Fri, Oct 9, 11:00 PM CT · Boone Pickens Stadium
Market spread
Market total
Model spread
Edge

Spread models

No model prediction for this game — usually means one side isn't FBS or ratings weren't available that week.

Totals model

No totals projection for this game.

Situational flags

off byeOklahoma State14d resthelps OKST
A skipped week on the schedule (a true bye). Extra prep time — usually a small positive, especially for the better-coached team and for underdogs.
revengeOklahoma Statelost by 3helps OKST
Lost the last meeting (within 2 seasons) in a rivalry or by ≤10 points, and this year's game projects within 14. The "one that got away" angle — modest, partly priced in.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

UCFOKST
ATS overall2-01-1
ATS at home1-01-0
ATS on the road1-00-1
ATS as favorite1-00-1
ATS as underdog1-01-0
ATS after a win1-0
ATS after a loss1-0
W–L at home1-01-0
W–L on the road0-10-1
Over / Under1O–1U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

No sportsbook lines captured for this game yet.

Line movement

No sportsbook lines captured for this game yet.

Prediction market · Kalshi

No Kalshi market matched to this game (it may not be listed, or the teams didn't resolve). Marquee games have the deepest markets.

Weather

No forecast yet — pulled once the game is inside the ~16-day forecast horizon.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.